The Next Solar Superstorm Could Be Days Away—Are We Ready to Respond?

Solar storms aren’t just dazzling light shows in the sky—they’re potential disruptors of modern civilization. As we enter the solar maximum of the Sun’s 11-year activity cycle, scientists are warning that the risk of a catastrophic solar storm is more real than ever. Recent events like the powerful Mother’s Day storm of May 2024 and a comprehensive U.S. simulation exercise have raised pressing questions: How ready are we for a major solar event? What would happen if another Carrington-level storm hit us today?

The Threat in the Sky Is Real and Growing

Solar storms are not future possibilities—they’ve happened before, and they will happen again. The most powerful solar storm on record took place nearly 13,000 years ago, as revealed in tree ring data. The infamous Carrington Event of 1859, however, provides our most vivid example of what a modern solar catastrophe could look like. That storm disrupted telegraph systems across continents.

Recent solar activity proves that the Sun is more active than it has been in decades. On May 10–11, 2024, a G5-class geomagnetic storm—the strongest category—struck Earth. Dubbed the “Gannon Storm” in honor of physicist Jennifer Gannon, it created auroras visible as far south as Mexico and disrupted radio communications worldwide. According to NASA and NOAA, it was the most intense solar storm since the 2003 Halloween storms.

The Mother’s Day Storm Was a Warning Shot

The 2024 Mother’s Day storm was dramatic, but not devastating—and that’s exactly why we need to pay attention. It demonstrated how vulnerable our infrastructure has become, even during relatively moderate space weather.

Evidence from NOAA and NASA revealed that the storm caused significant disruptions to radio frequencies, satellite communications, and GPS systems. Scientists also recorded disturbances in Earth’s ionosphere, including intense fluctuations in the sporadic E layers, which affect aircraft and military navigation systems. The storm even led to protective shutdowns of satellite instruments and ground-based power system adjustments in North America and Europe.

What’s striking is that this storm, while powerful, was nowhere near the strength of the Carrington Event. And yet, it still triggered widespread concern and disruption. That’s the lesson: if a modest storm can do this, what would a superstorm unleash?

Simulating the Worst: America’s First Space Weather Drill

Recognizing the stakes, the U.S. government ran its first-ever space weather preparedness drill just days before the real Mother’s Day storm hit. Conducted by the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) on May 8–9, 2024, this tabletop exercise brought together stakeholders from across federal and tribal agencies, the private sector, and emergency services.

According to APL’s After Action Report, the simulation revealed both strengths and gaps in our current preparedness. Participants included NASA, NOAA, FEMA, and the Department of Homeland Security, among others.

Key findings included:

• A lack of standardized emergency protocols across agencies.
• Inadequate public communication strategies for when space weather strikes.
• Limited coordination between scientific institutions and policymakers.

As APL’s Ian Cohen put it: “This helped us scientists not only provide awareness to senior leaders, but also highlight research and observational gaps, and learn how to best communicate space weather impacts to decision-makers.”

The timing was almost poetic—just as the simulation began, the Sun unleashed the real G5 storm. That coincidence turned a training scenario into a live test.

What’s at Stake? Technological Fragility in a Solar Era

Our dependence on interconnected technology makes us far more vulnerable than people in 1859. A severe solar storm today could wreak havoc across multiple critical systems simultaneously. The power grid, aviation, satellite operations, military communications, and financial networks are all at risk.

Consider this: a major storm could destroy electrical transformers, blacking out regions for days—or weeks. Satellite-based GPS, essential for planes, cargo ships, autonomous vehicles, and mobile phones, could become wildly inaccurate. Internet traffic carried by undersea cables might be disrupted by geomagnetic interference. Even banking systems—which rely on synchronized satellite clocks—could be thrown into chaos.

The 1989 Quebec blackout, caused by a less intense storm, left six million people without electricity for nine hours. That was over three decades ago, with much less tech dependency. Imagine such a blackout today in a hyper-connected world.

Closing the Gaps: What Needs to Be Done

Despite some progress, the world remains underprepared for the next big one—and scientists know it. The APL simulation’s results and other recent findings point to three major priorities for improving resilience:

1. Better Early Warning Systems: Investments in satellite missions like NOAA’s GOES-U and NASA’s Parker Solar Probe are helping us forecast solar outbursts more accurately. However, more real-time data and AI-enhanced modeling are needed to detect solar threats with actionable lead time.
2. Infrastructure Hardening: Power grid operators must install geomagnetically resistant transformers and improve grounding systems. Satellites need shielding and fallback protocols. Airlines should train for GPS and communication outages.
3. Public Education & Preparedness: Governments need clear communication plans for space weather events—similar to hurricane or earthquake alerts. The public must be informed of what to expect and how to protect themselves in a solar emergency.

Encouragingly, NOAA and NASA have expanded public dashboards and alerts, but uptake and awareness remain limited among the general population.

Global Collaboration Is Essential

Solar storms don’t recognize borders, which makes international cooperation a necessity. Coordinated data-sharing, research missions, and response protocols between agencies like ESA, JAXA, ISRO, and NASA are vital.

Efforts like the International Space Environment Service (ISES) and upcoming global summits on space weather policy are trying to build a more united front. But more proactive investment is needed, particularly in vulnerable countries that may lack the resources to respond quickly.

Conclusion: Time Is Ticking, But It’s Not Too Late

The Mother’s Day solar storm and the U.S. simulation exercise came together like cosmic choreography to teach us a critical lesson: the threat is real, and we’re not ready yet. But the good news is—we’re getting better. Awareness is growing, technologies are advancing, and more institutions are waking up to the reality of space weather risks.

We’ve seen the Sun’s warning flare. What we do now—improving communication, upgrading infrastructure, and funding science—will determine how well we weather the next storm.

Reference:

How NASA Tracked the Most Intense Solar Storm in Decades